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oransim

Open causal engine for marketing simulation: a virtual consumer society with LLM personas answers do()-style counterfactuals — rank campaign combos, swap KOLs mid-flight, replay spend. Apache-2.0.

1,168 152 Python Apache-2.0updated 8 days ago
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Curator's take

Rare thing: a production causal-ML engine open-sourced end to end. Pearl-style SCM (64 nodes/117 edges), per-arm counterfactual heads in the TARNet/Dragonnet lineage, causal Neural Hawkes rollouts, and LLM 'soul personas' that read your actual creatives — every layer carries inline paper citations and any prediction is traceable through the graph. Know what you're holding: the audit artifact of a Shenzhen martech company's open-core play. The OSS ships a 21k-note demo corpus plus synthetic data; real predictive power needs their licensed 小红书 panel or your own DataProvider, and the research-grade models are code-complete but weights-pending. Use it to study causal agent-based simulation or as a BYO-data scaffold — don't expect turnkey marketing truth.

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README.md
Oransim

Predict your next campaign's ROI before spending a dollar.

License Release Python CI Stars Website

🇬🇧 English · 🇨🇳 中文

Causal simulation for enterprise growth teams.
Audit the engine, license the data.

Oransim hero · 60-second prediction with counterfactual reasoning over a agent-based society

For enterprise CMOs — predict your next campaign's ROI before spending: 4.3M+ indexed 小红书 notes · 2.1M+ creators (达人) across 15 verticals · 100,000+ surveyed consumer panel, refreshed daily via licensed platform APIs. Counterfactual reasoning engine running on a 1M+ virtual consumer society with LLM-backed soul personas reading your actual creatives. Transparent causal logic, open-sourced so you can audit it before licensing data access.

The OSS repo you're reading is the same causal engine running on a 21k-note demo corpus — try it, audit the mechanism end-to-end, then explore the live Enterprise data panel at datacenter.oran.cn or contact cto@orannai.com for licensed access.

Who we are

OranAI Ltd. (橙果视界（深圳）科技有限公司) — a Shenzhen-based AI marketing company founded May 2024, closed a multi-million-dollar angel+ round led by Cloud Angels Fund, with participation from Leaguer Venture Capital and Jinshajiang United Capital. We co-operate the Tencent Cloud × OranAI AIGC Design Lab, run our in-house multimodal matrix (Oran-VL 7B / Oran-XVL 72B) behind four products — PhotoG (creative agent) · DataG (insight engine) · VoyaAI (strategy co-pilot) · DataCenter (real-time creator + note panel explorer) — and serve 70+ enterprise clients across beauty, FMCG, consumer electronics, and DTC outbound — including Timekettle and Hyundai Motor (Pharos IV Best Prize), with 2025 revenue crossing RMB 20M.

Oransim is the causal engine inside that stack. When a CMO using OranAI asks "what if we swapped KOL A for B on day 3 of this campaign?" — the do()-operator, the per-arm counterfactual heads, and the 14-day Hawkes rollout that answer the question all live in this repository. We open-sourced it under Apache-2.0 so enterprise buyers can audit the reasoning end-to-end — trust the engine, then license the data panel.

As featured in: PR Newswire · 亿邦动力 · 新浪科技 · 腾讯新闻 · [DoNews](https://www.donews.com/news/detail/5/3670706.ht